Blogroll Me! How This Old Brit Sees It ...: NYT Accepts Obama Victory, Most Media Continues To Pretend Clinton Has A Chance

02 May 2008

NYT Accepts Obama Victory, Most Media Continues To Pretend Clinton Has A Chance

It's raining forks over at the Clinton campaign headquarters

It's over. Even the Clinton's hometown newspaper, the New York Times, says so. That's significant, because the Times has been a Clinton booster since the beginning of the campaign. The Times doesn't explicitly say that Obama's got the nomination locked up, but it comes very close:

Despite a series of trials that have put Mr. Obama on the defensive and illustrated the burdens he might carry in a fall campaign, the Obama campaign is rolling along, leaving Mrs. Clinton with dwindling options. On Thursday, Obama got a boost from a high-profile defection: Joe Andrew, a former Democratic national chairman appointed by former President Bill Clinton, said he had changed his mind and would back Mr. Obama. Even after Mrs. Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama has held on to a solid lead in pledged delegates, those selected by the voting in primaries and caucuses.

By and large, the group that matters most at this point — the uncommitted superdelegates, who are likely to hold the balance of power — still seem to view their decision the way the Obama campaign would like them to see it. They suggest that they are more sympathetic to the argument that they should follow the will of the voters as expressed by the delegates amassed by the candidates when the primary season is done rather than following Mrs. Clinton’s admonitions to select the candidate they think would best be able to defeat Senator John McCain and the Republicans in November.

Let's review:

1) Obama has won the most pledged delegates and the popular vote, and national polls show that he is more popular than Clinton among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

2) Most uncommitted superdelegates seem to be leaning toward Obama, and with good reason. They understand that there would be a depressed turnout among blacks and young voters if the superdelegates defy the will of the party's rank-and-file and hand the nomination to Clinton. They know that Clinton had a 30 point lead over Obama as recently as September. And they understand that Clinton's attacks have actually made her more vulnerable to McCain in the general election. In short, the superdelegates know that Obama is the more electable candidate, and they know that they'll hurt congressional candidates if they select Clinton.

3) Superdelegates who had publicly supported Clinton are defecting to Obama.

Game. Set. Match.

The Times article is accompanied by a graphic that lays out the brutal math that now confronts the Clinton campaign. It indicates that if Clinton wins 60% of the remaining pledged delegates, she'll still lag behind Obama's pledged delegate total. And even if there are no more defections to the Obama campaign, she'll still need to convince 60% of the remaining superdelegates that they should risk alienating the majority of Democrats and cast aside the most talented campaigner of this generation.

That's not going to happen. For one thing, Clinton will will be lucky to get half of the remaining delegates, and she would need to get more than 70% of the remaining superdelegates if she managed to achieve that feat. If Obama gets 54% of the remaining delegates, which is likely, then she will need 80% of the remaining superdelegates.

So it's over. Clinton can't win unless Obama gets hit by lightning. But don't tell that to the idiots over at CNN. Like most media outlets, CNN is still pretending that Clinton has a good chance of getting the nomination. Check out this video report on Joe Andrew's defection to the Obama campaign, which CNN calls "Delegate Dead Heat". In it, CNN calls Obama's winning campaign "beleaguered". It's an upside-down, black-is-white presentation of the facts.

Until the media starts being more honest in its campaign coverage, the media focus will continue to be on the already-decided contest between Obama and Clinton, and not on the remaining contest between McCain and Obama. The longer that goes on, the less informed the American people will be about the differences between McCain and Obama when they go to the polls. And that might turn out to be the best gift that the media could have given to the Republicans.

(cross posted at appletree and Liberal Avenger)



Blogger BrandyWilson said...

I am waiting with bated breath the script that is going to be used to convince African-American folks that they...The Super Delegates...had to give the nomination to the White woman... and expect them to swallow it...maybe you can help keep me from turning blue?

12:10 pm  
Anonymous gordo said...


I'm starting to have a real problem with the superdelegates who still refuse to commit. I have nightmares about them just handing the nomination to Clinton, and letting someone else worry about the impact that their decision will have on African-American voters.

Back when I lived in Florida back in 1998, it looked like the Democrats would re-take control of the state House of Representatives. The problem was that the House Minority Leader was black, and the white legislators decided that Floridians would vote Republican rather than allow a black man to become the House Speaker.

So at the end of the legislative session, the white representatives waited until all of the black representatives had gone home to their districts, and held a special caucus in which they selected a white man as Minority Leader.

Needless to say, this stunt greatly depressed the black turnout, and the Republicans not only won the governorship and retained control of the House, but won control of the Senate as well.

3:31 pm  
Blogger BrandyWilson said...

Gordo... I am so intrigues by this issue I started my own blog... Hope you see it ....I'm kinds new at this... If anyone want to see this country erupt on a level that would make the Chicago 68 Convention look like an afternoon in Covent Gardens... Let this man be cheated...After playing by ALL the rules...doing all that was expected of him and more...then to have it denied him... WATCH OUT!

11:42 am  

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