Blogroll Me! How This Old Brit Sees It ...: US Ports And The UAE Aren't As Alarming As Iran And WWW3 ...

22 February 2006

US Ports And The UAE Aren't As Alarming As Iran And WWW3 ...



If you're among those currently creating such an almighty outcry about the United Arab Emirates and operations of some American sea ports, perhaps you should pay particular attention and attach even more importance to today's This Old Brit blog-post than you might usually do. Then pause and prioritize. Which is worse and which matters most -- UAE or WW3 ?

Think on this. When Albert Einstein was asked whether or not he thought the nightmare scenario of fighting a nuclear war would ever become reality, he said he wasn't sure.

But he went on to add that of one thing he was certain; if such a terrible thing was ever allowed to happen, then any wars thereafter would be fought with bows and arrows.

Well, we [for two] wouldn't dare [nor even dream of daring to] argue with such a universally acknowledged & acclaimed, genuine genius. Would you?

Especially, since siding against such super-intelligence would mean putting you life were your mouth was -- and risking your own continued existence along with that of many millions more -- including every single soul you personally hold near and dear.

Okay, enough of us for now. Next, get your head around an excellent article recently written by Heather Wokusch and published by 'Smirking Chimp'.

Read, learn and inwardly digest. And pray that enough of all our politicians -- be they left, right or centre -- may be made to do the same. Be they Christian, Muslim or Jew -- because hell doesn't differentiate.

Heather Wokusch:

'WWIII or bust: Implications of a US attack on Iran'

Date: Tuesday, February 21 @ 10:13:16 EST -- Topic: War & Terrorism

"This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous... Having said that, all options are on the table." George W. Bush, February 2005

Witnessing the Bush administration's drive for an attack on Iran is like being a passenger in a car with a raving drunk at the wheel.

Reports of impending doom surfaced a year ago, but now it's official: under orders from Vice President Cheney's office, the Pentagon has developed "last resort" aerial-assault plans using long-distance B2 bombers and submarine-launched ballistic missiles with both conventional and nuclear weapons.

How ironic that the Pentagon proposes using nuclear weapons on the pretext of protecting the world from nuclear weapons. Ironic also that Iran has complied with its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing inspectors to "go anywhere and see anything," yet those pushing for an attack, the USA and Israel, have not.

( snip )

Consider that many in the US and Iran seek religious salvation through a Middle Eastern blowout. "End times" Christian fundamentalists believe a cataclysmic Armageddon will enable the Messiah to reappear and transport them to heaven, leaving behind Muslims and other non-believers to face plagues and violent death. Iran's new Shia Islam president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, subscribes to a competing version of the messianic comeback, whereby the skies turn to flames and blood flows in a final showdown of good and evil. The Hidden Imam returns, bringing world peace by establishing Islam as the global religion.

Both the US and Iran have presidents who arguably see themselves as divinely chosen and who covet their own country's apocalypse-seeking fundamentalist voters. And into this tinderbox Bush proposes bringing nuclear weapons.

As expected, the usual suspects press for a US attack on Iran. Neo-cons who brought us the "cakewalk" of Iraq want to bomb the country. There's also Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, busy coordinating the action plan against Iran, who just released the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review calling for US forces to "operate around the globe" in an infinite "long war." One can assume Rumsfeld wants to bomb a lot of countries.

( second snip )

Attacking Iran could also tip the scales towards a new geopolitical balance, one in which the US finds itself shut out by Russia, China, Iran, Muslim countries and the many others Bush has managed to piss off during his period in office. Just last month, Russia snubbed Washington by announcing it would go ahead and honor a $700 million contract to arm Iran with surface-to-air missiles, slated to guard Iran's nuclear facilities.

And after being burned when the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority invalidated Hussein-era oil deals, China has snapped up strategic energy contracts across the world, including in Latin America, Canada and Iran. It can be assumed that China will not sit idly by and watch Tehran fall to the Americans. Russia and China have developed strong ties recently, both with each other and with Iran. Each possesses nuclear weapons, and arguably more threatening to the US, each holds large reserves of US dollars which can be dumped in favor of euros. Bush crosses them at his nation's peril.

Immensely interesting & illuminating information, eh? Surprised you've not seen nor heard much more about 'the real world' lately ? Like, for maybe quite a few years ? Then thank Fox News, Rupert Murdoch and the present proliferation of press prostitutes, etc.

Well, whatever -- but don't despair completely. There's still some time left for our [laughingly labeled] leaders to see some sense. But it's us -- yep, that means you and me -- who need to nudge them in the right direction. But only after having rudely awakened the somnambulistic shower of simpletons [and shysters & so on] in the first place.

Right then. Here's your last peek, pinched directly from this immensely informative & important, Heather Wokusch piece.

.... That's the worst-case scenario, but even the best case doesn't look good. Let's say the Bush administration chooses the UN Security Council over military power in dealing with Iran. That still leaves the proposed oil bourse, along with the economic fallout that will occur if OPEC countries snub the greenback in favor of petro-euros. At the very least, the dollar will drop and inflation could soar, so you'd think the administration would be busy tightening the nation's collective belt.

But no. The US trade deficit reached a record high of $725.8 billion in 2005, and Bush & Co.'s FY 2007 budget proposes increasing deficits by $192 billion over the next five years. The nation is hemorrhaging roughly $7 billion a month on military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is expected to hit its debt ceiling of $8.184 trillion next month.

So the white-knuckle ride to war continues, with the administration's goals in Iran very clear. Recklessly naïve and impetuous perhaps, but clear: stop the petro-euro oil bourse, take over Khuzestan Province (which borders Iraq and has 90% of Iran's oil) and secure the Straits of Hormuz in the process. As US politician Newt Gingrich recently put it, Iranians cannot be trusted with nuclear technology,
and they also "cannot be trusted with their oil.

"But the Bush administration cannot be trusted with foreign policy. Its military adventurism has already proven disastrous across the globe. It's incumbent upon each of us to do whatever we can to stop this race towards war.

Read the rest of this riveting report 'WWIII or bust: Implications of a US attack on Iran'

Also highly recommend reading, are these two related reports via the Washington Post.


West may have to live with low-level Iranian atom work

China Rushes to Complete $100B Deal With Iran

** Please pass this page on, as it may in it's own small way help save lots of lives -- including your own and those of your loved ones.

24 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

kerrrr.....iiiissstttt ...... that is soooooo scaaaary

are we-they that stupid....wait....don't answer that

all the same .... thanks for this

10:30 pm  
Blogger Confessions of a Malamute said...

I actually have a copy of that one on my blog. Been reading yours for a few days. Very good I’m impressed.

And yes the article is very scary indeed. The biggest problems with bush is he isn’t sane stable of personality or smarter than your average stump. So you cant predict what lunacy he is planning. I hope he contracts something unpleasant and dies a slow lingering pain filled death

1:22 am  
Anonymous Rex said...

Scary is an understatement. Maybe that's why Cheney's been so busy building his underground bunker. Maybe all the camps being built are for all those folk who eventually DO take to the streets to protest their madness.

10:33 am  
Anonymous Rosemary said...

Thanks, Richard.

No wonder I can't sleep and am having increasing nightmares and can't seem to get anything done!

I suppose Cheney et al expect to survive, and to hell with the rest of us. And to hell with the rest of the world's population.

Whatever resources are left on the planet will be theirs and they won't mave many left to share it with. Just enough population to provide them some cheap labor on their terms.

So they don't really care if the U.S. gets bombed to smithereens. Which it certainly will, if they get their way.

All other outrages and debates over puzzling things and worry about how fast the dollar will drop fade into insignificance in the face of this.

the next war will be fought with bows and arrows

12:14 pm  
Blogger Gert said...

I think it's important to keep things in perspective here. What Heather Wokusch describes in her rather scaremongering piece are definitely worst case scenarios and these are never in the interests of the involved parties and are very unlikely to actually take place. It's tempting to see both the US and Iran as being led by fanatical lunatics willing to risk the end of the world as we know it, to achieve their goals but both are rational enough to realise that this strategy is in no one's interest.

I've been (and remain) concerned with the possibility surgical strikes by the US against Iranian nuclear installations but after much reading and blogging I feel now that such intervention isn't very likely at all and that certainly an invasion or the use of nuclear weapons can safely be ruled out.

What we're seeing today is increasing brinkmanship on both sides with the kind of talk that, ironically, sits well with both the average Repugs and Iranian Religious Right alike. That's part of the reason why the "strongmen" Bush and Ahmadinejad use that kind of language: their heartland voters lap it up, these people need, indeed thrive on, perceived enemies.

The same goes for Israel. Heather writes:

"And there's Israel, keen that no other country in the region gains access to nuclear weapons. In late 2002, former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Iran should be targeted "the day after" Iraq was subdued, [link] and Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud Party, recently warned that if he wins the presidential race in March 2006, Israel will "do what we did in the past against Saddam's reactor," an obvious reference to the 1981 bombing of the Osirak nuclear facility in Iraq. It doesn't help that Iran's Ahmadinejad has called the Holocaust a myth and said that Israel should be "wiped off the map.""

Iraq has been subdued a while ago now, but have we seen "Iran targeted" yet? Netanyahu shows another impressive glimpse of what an opportunistic airhead he actually is: the Osirak attack would pale into insignificance compared to what would be needed for a nuclear KO in Iran. Israel doesn't have the military might to deliver such a blow. American milblogs have played out several war-game scenarios, proving rather conclusively that Israel couldn't go it alone. It's talk, nothing more.

Ahmadinejad's gaffe was contradicted the next day by the clerics. Ahmadinejad has much less executive power that most in the West believe. It's useful to try and understand Iran's complex mix of theocracy and democracy; in particular its multiple feedback loops to ensure opposing powers keep each other in check.

The petro-euro and Khuzestan part of Wokusch's piece is also rather old hat and doesn't really rise much above conspiracy theory at worst, wild speculation at best.

Despite much macho talk from both sides the Iranians have moved their nuclear program forward in a very tentative rather than a decisive way and American response has also been more of the hot air variety than anything else. That detailed plans for an attack exist, that I'm convinced of. But plans are but that: plans.


I really think it's important that we keep blogging on this subject. But I think it's equally important that we keep level-headed about what is actually likely to happen and what doesn't amount to much more than tabloid scaremongering. To me, Wokusch's piece is essentially the latter, progressive or not.

Over at my blog I quote from two Iran pieces that are in my view more rational, better balanced and less sensationalist.

1:53 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

America has long since fired all it's decent military brass because they warned in advance about Iraq nightmare.

It's easy for you to 'keep things inperspective' gert - Rumsfeld, Cheney and the others in charge now have only toadies advising and running the military - who say and do what they are told to by the crazy inexperienced civilians in charge.

"Keep things in perspective?" Yeah, sure, you tell that to the loonies running the show. See if it gets you any further than it did all those fired, experienced and knowledgable ex US generals.

3:20 pm  
Blogger St!ff M!ttens said...

I'm inclined to agree with Gert here, however the anonymous post just below Gert's makes a valid point. It may just be bravura and brinkmanship, but that doesn't necessarily mean nothing bad is going to happen. All it takes is for some "heartland" morons who believe all the bluff talk, to take matters into their own hands and launch a terrorist attack in either direction. Then you might see some really serious escalation. We invaded two countries in response to 9/11, and one of them didn't even have anything to do with it!

Also, I have to take exception with the premise of Richard's original post. The US ports issue may not be as apocalyptic in it's implications as war with Iran, but it is more imminent and tangible to us. What's more, I don't think anyone should be dissuading anybody from attacking the Bush administration. We need to keep the pressure up on these @$$holes, from as many directions as possible. The more ways we generate public outrage towards the Bush administration, the more likely it is that Congress will stand up to the Whitehouse and let the air out of their tires. If I may borrow and bastardize from BushCo: we need to harass this administration over here so the rest of you don't have to fight our troops over there.

4:21 pm  
Blogger Gert said...

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that in this digital universe it's easy to assume only the "0" or "1" solutions exist.

Instead there are a whole range of actions either party might take without having to resort to Dr Strangelove type of scenarios.

Comparing the Afghan and Iraqi "adventures" with Iran is also unrealistic: both the former were militarily speaking a mere walk in the park and held little promise for catastrophic adverse effects. The actual effects are of course bad enough but not of the Doomsday variety.

But Iran will fight tenaciously and the fallout is potentially WW III. That's a bad trade-off, even for a lunatic. That's why I don't believe even Bushco seriously considers this option...

I seriously hope I'm not wrong...

4:41 pm  
Blogger St!ff M!ttens said...

Well said, Gert (again). I certainly hope you're right too (and deep down, I do believe you are). But still, I think vigilance is useful. Complacency and a sense of security is what got us here to begin with.

;-}

4:55 pm  
Blogger Gert said...

Well, let me assure you that I'm not complacent and will not be lulled into a false sense of security, vigilance remains necessary, the alert is till on "amber to red" on my blog.

But too much speculation will not help our cause: it's too easy to dismiss as "anti-war propaganda".

5:08 pm  
Blogger Richard said...

Phew. This place is hot tonight. I think I'll take a breather, as it seems things are going great guns without me. Seriously - so please don't take me the wrong way.

It's wonderful to watch such varied and genuinely relevant comments come in, and see so many opinions, discussions & debates proliferate.

And as I said, please don't take this the wrong way. It truly does help [everyone] when I can read along with all and see things I could or should [or shouldn't] have included.

Without playing the sympathy/age/health cards, I really do doubt that anyone realises how long it takes me to put together a piece/page -- which may then take a reader no time at all to fly through.

So here's hoping that helps prove my sincerity when saying it's great to be able to sit back and watch some of 'the work' being done by others. Many of whom, incidentally, also manage regularly to maintain first class sites of their own. (Amongst many more things, I'l wager. Unlike has beens like me. Heh.)

So, in a word -- thanks. You all help make here what it is. A little place/blog/site 'well worth while' -- I hope. :^)

10:12 pm  
Blogger Confessions of a Malamute said...

Gert;

I honest to god hope you're right in your assessment that bush wont go nuclear. My worry is we’re not dealing with a sane man here. He’s unpredictable. You talk of verbal brinkmanship. Ever read the pre WW1 Willie (the German Kaiser) and Nicky (the Czar of Russa) letters? They outline perfectly where brinkmanship has the potential to lead. bush isn't sane. He doesn't have a grasp on the reality of what he is doing. He thinks, honestly believes, god is talking to him. If you or I was convinced god was talking to us we’d be in a rubber room pumped up on good anti psychotics. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if bush actually believes that everything is peachy in Iraq. Attacking Iraq in any form is a dangerous thing to do. They do have the will and the capability to cause the u.s. MUCH grief. Even a limited nuclear war has the potential to engulf us all. China and Russia wont like nukes going off in both their back yard and in the country that has oil they could use themselves. I truly hope of the two of us, you are right. I don't like the idea of war period, let alone nuclear.

Rosemary: I think you’ll find when the u.s. $ gets dumped it will become expensive toilet paper. If you have u.s. investments get them out now. Some of the biggest financiers in the world are now backing Chinese oil companies in their acquisition of foreign (american) oil companies. Rats from a sinking ship. You can bet they know more than we ever will about the true state of u.s. finances. If they're leaving we should be too. With a national debt over 8 trillion, and 725.8 billion dollar trade deficit bush doesn't have to many real life options left. The u.s. is a house of cards in a lot of ways. bush & cronies arrogance is blinding himself and the american people to just how precarious their position is.

11:11 pm  
Blogger Confessions of a Malamute said...

Another very scary article I found this evening:
bush goes after 5th columnists

Am I over reacting or should we be practicing our goosestep ? Add in the FEMA camps, the mercs, bush the insane and some Arbeit Macht Frei signs over the gates and you got bushs final solution to eletions the draft and his slipping popularity. Comments in my blog on this story.

Please someone tell me Im over reacting...

7:36 am  
Anonymous jon said...

The Iran Nuclear issue is a smokescreen.

It seems to me that the motivation behind the imminent attack on Iran is to prevent the establishment of the Iranian Oil Bourse. Further details are available at http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.html or http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html.

It would appear that the same rationale was behind the invasion of Iraq - the article at http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html provides an in-depth analysis of the REAL reason for the Iraq War – to overturn Iraq’s decision (in late 2000) to use the Euro to sell its oil (see http://archives.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/meast/10/30/iraq.un.euro.reut/ )

12:32 pm  
Anonymous jon said...

Sorry, these links in full

Iranian Oil Bourse

See here or here or here.

Explanation of reason behind iraq war here

Iraq's decision to use Euros for oil

The threat to the removal of the US Oil Dollar hegemony IS THE REASON FOR THE IMMINENT KICKOFF.

12:38 pm  
Blogger Gert said...

Malamute:

"Ever read the pre WW1 Willie (the German Kaiser) and Nicky (the Czar of Russa) letters? They outline perfectly where brinkmanship has the potential to lead."

No doubt the dynamics of brinkmanship can lead to real war. I just don't believe the actors will choose that option though, because the consequences are too catastrophic vis-à-vis the gains.

"bush isn't sane. He doesn't have a grasp on the reality of what he is doing. He thinks, honestly believes, god is talking to him. If you or I was convinced god was talking to us we’d be in a rubber room pumped up on good anti psychotics. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if bush actually believes that everything is peachy in Iraq."

Bush may not be sane but you over-estimate his executive power: Bush is really a puppet, the decisions lie with the puppeteers...

4:00 pm  
Anonymous bluey said...

I wish I could add to all this - but lools like EVERYTHING has been mentioned that I know about. Even thought there's slight differences of opinion, I mus say the combined knowledge-postings-links is 1st class.

There's probably more "nouse" here than there is in the oval office.

If only all this could be read more widely. In the meantime, keep 'talking'. (And give the old guy a break. ha. Just joking Old Brit.

5:30 pm  
Blogger Gert said...

Just found this (very recent post)

General Pace Calms Iran Attack Speculation

Marine General Peter Pace, Joint Chiefs chairman, throws cold water on speculation that military action against Iran is near:

"I believe that the international community has many, many, many diplomatic, economic, other opportunities to influence Iran — not only the United States, but all the international community — to affect the way that Iran is acting in the world," he said. "So from where I stand, from where I sit, we are a long way away from needing the military option."

Pace's comment was reported by Washington Times reporters Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough in today's edition of Inside the Ring.

When you couple Pace's comments with President Bush's recent call for freedom and democracy in Iran, I don't think an attack on Iran is imminent.

Read more

5:36 pm  
Anonymous jon said...

bluey,

I'd recommend the blog .

Excellent political & economic analysis can be found there...

Remember peeps, research the
Iranian Oil Bourse - that's what all the fuss is about.

11:38 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i know about the oil burse, euro switch, et al - but ain't the point the old brit makes {and the main link} that whatever reason US uses to attack iran - china and russian won't sit quietly in their place like little kids any more - and just watch this time?

they ain't gonna let the usa steal ANY MORE OIL from under their noses - 'cos the more they're let steal the less is there is available

the stakes are already upped - BIG TIME - so the risks are now upped - BIG TIME

12:30 am  
Anonymous bluey said...

OK, jon. Thanks. I'll check them out later.

12:52 am  
Blogger Confessions of a Malamute said...

Richard;

loved your typo of my name on my comment section of my blog. Don’t tell my human or he'll use it on us lol. We've been called worst by said human. Esp when we play fun games like "lets chase the bear" or "lets hunt the cougar" Anyway I found it a good giggle this morning. I had a quick look at the blog you recommended. I'll have a better look later today.

Anon 12:30am

Iran wont be a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination. Doesn’t matter how Iran is attacked. I think if/when it is it will retaliate in all sorts of ways. Close down the Gulf which it can do quite easily. Cut off oil sales. Even for a short time this will prove disastrous to western economies. The americans are in a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario of their own making.

Jon

I’ve heard and read some about the oil bourse and agree with it. Look at the u.s. national debt. 8 trillion +. I cant imagine what the interest payments on that would be. So the u.s. dollar cant handle too much devaluation before simply paying interest payments gets well, interesting. Massive trade deficit 725.8 billion dollars…. Not lots of options available. Worse still the u.s. banker is the nation the u.s. sees as its most potential adversary. China. China and Russia got screwed in Iraq with regards to their oil contracts. It wont happen again. A best case scenario is they’ll do to the americans, what the americans did to the Soviets during their stint in Afghanistan. Supply them arms on the side, bog them down, break the back of the army. Worst case scenario is Chinese and/or Russian troops in Iran (tho I don't think we’d see this). So the u.s. is basically screwed. If it attacks Iran it will eventually lose, and when it loses I have a feeling it can kiss goodbye a lot of access to the worlds oil. If it doesn't attack Iran, then Iran can set up its oil bourse and the u.s. dollar becomes expensive toilet paper. The more value the u.s. dollar loses the harder it is to pay its already considerable debt.

I think george and dicks and cronies dreams of empire could well be what destroys the u.s. as a world power. I don't think history will remember them kindly. My feeling is the u.s. isn't all that many years away from going through what Russia did when Gorbechev stopped playing the game of the Cold War. Gorbachev was smart. He saw the writing on the wall and made hard changes to save Russia from economic collapse. The u.s. never did that. They kept spending like it was still 1950 and they were still the manufacturing powerhouse they once were. Its not like that anymore. Many factories are closed. Its not like you can reopen them either, the equipment has been sold. I think the u.s. is in for a rude awakening. This could all be averted except it wont be. The little boys with big egos who call themselves world leaders are gambling they can win it all through the blood of their own children. If they lose they lose it all. I don't see at this point how they could win. The u.s. is finding out what Germany did in WW2. You may have the strongest army, but you cant fight the whole world. Too many countries have a vested interest to see the u.s. fail. It remains to be seen, how much the u.s. will pay for that failure.

7:26 pm  
Blogger Gert said...

Also really interesting: The Consequences of War with Iran. We should all spread this kind of stuff around: it's better argued than any of us ever could.

8:53 pm  
Anonymous Alaskan Malamutes said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

1:45 am  

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